I checked what
had happend during my sleeping time and I noticed the similar chart on both
EUR/USD and GBP/USD. See this –
See the beginning
of the chart, Aroon gives heads up for BUY, %R gives heads up for BUY, RSI
doesn’t show anything. On another chart, chart 3 the EMA’s give heads up for
BUY. This was followed by a sideways movement for 4 hours. Then Aroon was still
in the positive side while RSI and %R would have given a sell signal. However,
when you look at the candlesticks and also see that 5.period EMA is still above
all the other EMA’s then this was all bullish and this trade might have gives
us bullish signal. Also if you would have drawn simple trendlines to the chart,
again you would have got bullish signal. So the most simple things often do
give the best signals – candlestick analysis, trendlines, moving averages.
Today I also made
one trade with USD/CHF via signals from candlesticks and moving averages, this lost me
$4.40 (closed the deal manually) bringing my account down to $51.65 – the reason for the loss was that I read
the chart incorrectly, I thought that 5-EMA had crossed 14-EMA and 9 EMA while
it actually hadn’t. This cost me a bit. However, as filled marobozu formed after that I
could have made a trade now in exactly the opposite direction but again I
didn’t notice it at the time.
EUR/USD and
GBP/USD are still 20-40 pips above 50-day EMA and I think it might be possible
to get some profit out of them soon.
Around 12:15 Doji
Star was seen on EUR/USD chart indicating a possible trend reversal (bearish). I’d
like to see confirmation for that before entering a trade. Currently GBP/USD is
slightly moving down as well, crossing the trendline. As EUR and GBP against
USD often move in the same direction then it might be true that a bearish move
is expected. The signal just not yet was a correct one, so I’m glad I didn’t
dive into that trade. But soon...
UPDATE
The main wrong decision that I did today was, after I saw the major raise or fall everywhere, I expected a reversal to the minor trend. I never considered I should go with the trend. While I do know that you should always trade in the direction of a trend, I rather thought about just a bit longer trends - 24 hours to couple of days, not just a matter of couple of hours.
